- Press Release
- Oct 1, 2022
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 December 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec, 08 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 361 km/s at 05/2048Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 05/1133Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 05/1149Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 122 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec, 08 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Dec 071
Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 05 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/15/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/20