Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 December 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec, 08 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 483 km/s at 04/2159Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 04/2308Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 05/2005Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Dec, 07 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (08 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Dec 071
Predicted   06 Dec-08 Dec 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        05 Dec 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec  007/008-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/25