Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 December 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 05/1521Z from Region 2463 (S12E52). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec, 08 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 509 km/s at 05/1827Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 05/1402Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 05/0647Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 805 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (06 Dec, 07 Dec) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (08 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Dec 101
Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 05 Dec 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 012/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 020/030-020/025-016/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/35
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 55/55/55