Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 05/1225Z from Region 2222 (S20W51). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec, 08 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 524 km/s at 04/2109Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 05/0440Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 04/2151Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 241 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Dec) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Dec 137
Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 135/135/140
90 Day Mean 05 Dec 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 007/008-008/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
