Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 December 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
05/1743Z from Region 1909 (S17W34). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06
Dec, 07 Dec, 08 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 381 km/s at
05/1404Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 05/1224Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 05/1009Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Dec) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Dec 150
Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 155/155/150
90 Day Mean 05 Dec 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 007/008-011/012-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/25/25
Minor Storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/35/35