Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 August 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug, 08 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 327 km/s at 04/2100Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/1604Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 05/1533Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1569 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (07 Aug, 08 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Aug 074
Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 074/073/075
90 Day Mean 05 Aug 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 003/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 010/012-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/20
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 40/25/25