Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 August 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (06 Aug) and expected to be very low on days two and three (07 Aug, 08 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 618 km/s at 04/2202Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2815 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (06 Aug, 07 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Aug 073
Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 073/073/073
90 Day Mean 05 Aug 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 005/005-006/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/20