Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 August 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug, 08 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 752 km/s at 05/1723Z. Total IMF reached 23 nT at 05/0857Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -21 nT at 05/0701Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Aug), quiet to active levels on day two (07 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Aug 068
Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 05 Aug 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 029/037
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 020/025-012/015-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/15
Minor Storm 25/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 65/40/25