Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 August 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug, 08 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 367 km/s at 05/0516Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/1531Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/0836Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 126 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Aug) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (07 Aug, 08 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           05 Aug 069

Predicted   06 Aug-08 Aug 069/069/069

90 Day Mean        05 Aug 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug  008/006

Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug  005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug  007/008-009/012-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/30/30

Minor Storm           01/10/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           25/30/30

Major-severe storm    20/40/40