- Status Report
- Jan 28, 2023
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 August 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug, 08 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 794 km/s at 05/1216Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 04/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/2239Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6433 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (06 Aug, 08 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (07 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Aug 074
Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 05 Aug 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 019/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 017/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 011/012-008/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 10/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 45/25/40