Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 August 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug, 08 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 794 km/s at 05/1216Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 04/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/2239Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6433 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (06 Aug, 08 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (07 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Aug 074
Predicted   06 Aug-08 Aug 074/074/074
90 Day Mean        05 Aug 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug  019/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug  017/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug  011/012-008/008-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/30
Minor Storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    45/25/40