Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 August 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 05/1012Z from Region 2572 (N13W46). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug, 08 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 735 km/s at 05/1918Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 05/0419Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 05/0445Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5120 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Aug, 07 Aug) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (08 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Aug 080
Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 085/090/095
90 Day Mean 05 Aug 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 017/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 007/010-007/010-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/35
Minor Storm 05/05/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 25/25/55