Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 August 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
05/2027Z from Region 2132 (S21W07). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug,
08 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
526 km/s at 05/1720Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 04/2104Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 05/0505Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (06 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (07 Aug, 08 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Aug 139
Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 135/135/130
90 Day Mean 05 Aug 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 015/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 006/005-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/15/15