Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 April 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 95 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Apr, 07 Apr, 08 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 343 km/s at 05/1458Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 05/1042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 05/1053Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 398 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Apr, 07 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (08 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Apr 072
Predicted 06 Apr-08 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 05 Apr 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 008/008-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 25/25/20