Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 April 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 95 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Apr, 07 Apr, 08 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 533 km/s at 05/1154Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/0732Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/0519Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8559 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (06 Apr, 08 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day two (07 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Apr 072
Predicted   06 Apr-08 Apr 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        05 Apr 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr  008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr  011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  007/010-010/012-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/20
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    25/30/25