Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 April 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 95 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Apr, 07 Apr, 08 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 432 km/s at 05/2056Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 05/1815Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 05/1829Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 855 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Apr) and quiet levels on days two and three (07 Apr, 08 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Apr 066
Predicted   06 Apr-08 Apr 067/067/067
90 Day Mean        05 Apr 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/15/15
Major-severe storm    25/15/15