Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 April 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 96 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Apr, 07 Apr, 08 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 439 km/s at 05/0103Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 05/0132Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 05/1105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3924 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (06 Apr, 08 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day two (07 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Apr 083
Predicted 06 Apr-08 Apr 083/084/087
90 Day Mean 05 Apr 099

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 007/008-011/012-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/25
Minor Storm 10/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 35/50/40