Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 April 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
April 5, 2015
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 April 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 95 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 05/0007Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Apr, 07 Apr, 08 Apr).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 606 km/s at 05/0626Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 04/2356Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 05/2046Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 297 pfu.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Apr) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (07 Apr, 08 Apr).

 

III.  Event probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           05 Apr 122

Predicted   06 Apr-08 Apr 120/125/125

90 Day Mean        05 Apr 131

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr  010/010

Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr  007/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  007/008-009/012-013/015

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/30/35

Minor Storm           01/05/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           20/30/30

Major-severe storm    20/35/45

SpaceRef staff editor.