Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 April 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 95 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
05/1748Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Apr, 07 Apr,
08 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 362 km/s at
04/2302Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/1938Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 05/1940Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1970 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Apr) and quiet levels
on days two and three (07 Apr, 08 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Apr 134
Predicted 06 Apr-08 Apr 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 05 Apr 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 009/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/20/10