Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 September 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Sep, 06 Sep, 07 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 456 km/s at 03/2241Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/1309Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/2349Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15347 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 Sep, 06 Sep, 07 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Sep 070
Predicted 05 Sep-07 Sep 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 04 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20