Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 September 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Sep, 06 Sep, 07 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 674 km/s at 04/1700Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 04/1439Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/1418Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 87889 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (05 Sep, 06 Sep, 07 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Sep 069
Predicted 05 Sep-07 Sep 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 04 Sep 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep 011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep 007/008-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/25/20