- Press Release
- September 24, 2022
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 September 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Sep, 06 Sep, 07 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 450 km/s at 04/1825Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 04/0417Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 04/0354Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12215 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (06 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Sep 068
Predicted 05 Sep-07 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 04 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep 006/005-007/008-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 15/20/40