Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 September 2016

By SpaceRef Editor
September 4, 2016
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Sep, 06 Sep, 07 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 853 km/s at 03/2214Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 04/1249Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/2331Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 40294 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (05 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (06 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (07 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Sep 097
Predicted 05 Sep-07 Sep 098/098/098
90 Day Mean 04 Sep 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep 021/036
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep 020/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep 015/018-011/012-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/15/10


SpaceRef staff editor.