Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 September 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Sep, 06 Sep, 07 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 585 km/s at 04/0527Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 04/1145Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 04/1206Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 371 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (05 Sep, 07 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (06 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Sep 090
Predicted 05 Sep-07 Sep 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 04 Sep 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep 017/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep 010/012-008/008-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/35
Minor Storm 10/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 40/25/50