Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 September 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
04/1330Z from Region 2152 (S15W38). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(05 Sep, 06 Sep, 07 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
443 km/s at 03/2346Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/0221Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/0210Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at
04/1425Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2420 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Sep), unsettled to
active levels on day two (06 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (07 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Sep 146
Predicted 05 Sep-07 Sep 150/155/155
90 Day Mean 04 Sep 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep 011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep 007/010-015/020-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/35/25
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/25