Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 October 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct, 07 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 423 km/s at 03/2328Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 26522 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct, 07 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Oct 071
Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 071/070/070
90 Day Mean 04 Oct 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10