Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 October 2017

By SpaceRef Editor
October 4, 2017
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct, 07 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 401 km/s at 04/0043Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 04/2003Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 04/2016Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8352 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (05 Oct, 06 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Oct 087
Predicted   05 Oct-07 Oct 087/087/085
90 Day Mean        04 Oct 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct  008/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct  005/005-005/005-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/30
Minor Storm           01/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    15/20/45

SpaceRef staff editor.