Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 October 2016

By SpaceRef Editor
October 4, 2016
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct, 07 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 604 km/s at 04/1551Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 04/1155Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 04/0811Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16465 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (05 Oct) and quiet levels on days two and three (06 Oct, 07 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Oct 093
Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 04 Oct 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 012/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 020/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 010/012-007/006-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.