Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 October 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
October 4, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
04/0241Z from old Region 2422 (S20, L=097). There are currently 1
numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct, 07 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 533 km/s at 04/1449Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 04/0144Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 04/0039Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (05 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (06 Oct, 07 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Oct 088
Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 04 Oct 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 010/012-009/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/20
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 35/25/25

 

SpaceRef staff editor.