Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 November 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 04/1055Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 817 km/s at 04/1040Z. Total IMF reached 24 nT at 03/2357Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -18 nT at 04/0820Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10 pfu at 03/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1173 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (05 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (06 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (07 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Nov 094
Predicted 05 Nov-07 Nov 090/085/085
90 Day Mean 04 Nov 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov 014/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov 052/084
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 017/018-013/015-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/25
Minor Storm 20/20/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 55/50/40