Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 November 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 390 km/s at 04/2046Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 04/0614Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/0910Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2389 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Nov 071
Predicted 05 Nov-07 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 04 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 008/008-009/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 25/30/25