Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 November 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 458 km/s at 04/1701Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 04/0147Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/0342Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (06 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (07 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Nov 072
Predicted   05 Nov-07 Nov 072/071/070
90 Day Mean        04 Nov 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  006/005-008/010-018/027

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/40
Minor Storm           01/05/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/25/30
Major-severe storm    10/20/45