Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 November 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 423 km/s at 04/0531Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 04/0217Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 03/2122Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1782 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Nov 077
Predicted 05 Nov-07 Nov 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 04 Nov 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov 012/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 007/008-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/10/15