Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 November 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
November 4, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 04/1352Z from Region 2443 (N06W09). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 770 km/s at 04/0405Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 04/0325Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 04/0444Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4404 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (06 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (07 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (05 Nov) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
Class M 65/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 15/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Nov 114
Predicted 05 Nov-07 Nov 115/110/110
90 Day Mean 04 Nov 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov 023/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov 028/041
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 014/015-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/25/20
Minor Storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 55/30/25

SpaceRef staff editor.