Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 November 2014
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
03/2240Z from Region 2205 (N14E84). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
482 km/s at 04/2052Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 04/1208Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 04/1156Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 264 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (05 Nov) with a slight chance
for minor storm conditions, quiet to unsettled levels on day two (06
Nov) and quiet levels on day three (07 Nov). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06
Nov, 07 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Nov 129
Predicted 05 Nov-07 Nov 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 04 Nov 140
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 009/012-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/30/25
