Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 May 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 04/0859Z from Region 3004 (S16W17). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 May, 06 May, 07 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic 03/2208Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1467 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 May, 06 May, 07 May).

III. Event probabilities 05 May-07 May
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 May 130
Predicted 05 May-07 May 135/138/145
90 Day Mean 04 May 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 006/005-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10