Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 May 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 04/1351Z from Region 2535 (N07W68). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (05 May) and likely to be low on days two and three (06 May, 07 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 522 km/s at 03/2202Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/0146Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 03/2153Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5376 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (05 May, 06 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 May).

III. Event probabilities 05 May-07 May
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 May 090
Predicted 05 May-07 May 095/100/100
90 Day Mean 04 May 095

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May 011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 006/005-006/005-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/30
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/30
Major-severe storm 10/10/35