Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 04/0052Z from Region 2335 (S15E24). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 May, 06 May, 07 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 524 km/s at 04/1904Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/2352Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 247 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 May) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (06 May, 07 May).
III. Event probabilities 05 May-07 May
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 May 125
Predicted 05 May-07 May 130/135/135
90 Day Mean 04 May 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 007/008-013/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May