Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 May 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
04/1231Z from Region 2051 (S09W64). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (05 May, 06 May) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (07 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
392 km/s at 04/1340Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 04/0509Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 04/0526Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (05 May, 06 May)
and quiet to active levels on day three (07 May).

III. Event probabilities 05 May-07 May
Class M 40/40/35
Class X 10/10/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 May 132
Predicted 05 May-07 May 135/135/130
90 Day Mean 04 May 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May 014/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 008/008-007/008-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/30
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/20/40