Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 March 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 63 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 03/2155Z from Region 2958 (N17E11). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar, 07 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solarwind speed reached a peak of 484 km/s at 04/1041Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 04/0042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/1717Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 234 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar, 07 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 113
Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 115/117/117
90 Day Mean 04 Mar 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 012/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 011/012-011/012-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 40/40/40