Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 March 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 63 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar, 07 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 786 km/s at 04/1345Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/2126Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/0354Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22405 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (05 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (06 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (07 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Mar 075
Predicted   05 Mar-07 Mar 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        04 Mar 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar  015/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar  016/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar  011/012-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/15/05
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/25/15
Major-severe storm    45/20/10