Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 62 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M8 event observed at 03/0135Z from Region 2290 (now rotated off of the West limb). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (04 Mar) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 624 km/s at 02/2228Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/0611Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/2058Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2054 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (04 Mar, 05 Mar, 06 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
Class M 20/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Mar 125
Predicted 04 Mar-06 Mar 120/120/125
90 Day Mean 03 Mar 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar 018/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar 015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar 007/010-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
