Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 March 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 63 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
04/0455Z from Region 1991 (S24W13). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(05 Mar, 06 Mar, 07 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
457 km/s at 04/1711Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 04/0331Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/1125Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at
03/2110Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar, 07
Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar, 07 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 158
Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 155/150/150
90 Day Mean 04 Mar 160

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05