Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 March 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 63 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar, 07 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 516 km/s at
04/0219Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/2116Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/2323Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6261 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (06 Mar, 07 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 114
Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 112/112/110
90 Day Mean 04 Mar 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 006/005-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/25
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/30/30