Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 June 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Jun, 06 Jun, 07 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 311 km/s at 04/0049Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9519 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (05 Jun, 06 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (07 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jun 101
Predicted 05 Jun-07 Jun 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 04 Jun 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun 010/012-009/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/10
Minor Storm 15/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/15
Major-severe storm 45/40/10