Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 June 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Jun, 06 Jun, 07 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 439 km/s at 04/2039Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 03/2327Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/0153Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 143 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 Jun, 06 Jun, 07 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jun 077
Predicted 05 Jun-07 Jun 077/077/077
90 Day Mean 04 Jun 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun 005/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10