Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 June 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Jun, 06 Jun, 07 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 355 km/s at 04/2017Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 146 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (06 Jun, 07 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jun 070
Predicted 05 Jun-07 Jun 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 04 Jun 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun 006/005-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/10