Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 June 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Jun, 06 Jun, 07 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 348 km/s at 04/0033Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 04/1910Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 04/1537Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1264 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Jun) and quiet levels on days two and three (06 Jun, 07 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jun 070
Predicted   05 Jun-07 Jun 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        04 Jun 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/10/10