Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 June 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Jun, 06 Jun, 07 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 664 km/s at 03/2316Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
04/1040Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at
04/0249Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 22123 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Jun) and quiet levels
on days two and three (06 Jun, 07 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jun 071
Predicted 05 Jun-07 Jun 071/070/070
90 Day Mean 04 Jun 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun 008/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/20