Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 June 2018

By SpaceRef Editor
June 4, 2018
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on
04 Jun 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Jun, 06 Jun, 07 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 664 km/s at 03/2316Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
04/1040Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at
04/0249Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 22123 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (
05 Jun) and quiet levels
on days two and three (06 Jun, 07 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jun 071
Predicted 05 Jun-07 Jun 071/070/070
90 Day Mean 04 Jun 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun 008/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/20

SpaceRef staff editor.