Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 June 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (05 Jun) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (06 Jun, 07 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 503 km/s at 04/0131Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/2141Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 03/2126Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 224 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 Jun, 06 Jun, 07 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
Class M    10/05/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jun 078
Predicted   05 Jun-07 Jun 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        04 Jun 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun  005/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/10/10