Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 04/0947Z from Region 2361 (N16E64). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Jun, 06 Jun, 07 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, ranged from about 250 to 310 km/s during the period. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 04/0352Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 04/1408Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (06 Jun, 07 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jun 118
Predicted 05 Jun-07 Jun 125/130/135
90 Day Mean 04 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun 006/005-008/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
